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JBP: Vol. 6 No. 1
May 2006

CONTENTS

Papers

Petherick, W. A.  (2006)  Developing the Criminal Profile: On the Nature of Induction and Deduction,  Journal of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May. 

Abstract
Induction and deduction are among the most pivotal theoretical and practical issues in criminal profiling, yet they are the most poorly understood.  Induction involves statistical or correlational reasoning whereby the current offender is assessed by virtue of their difference or similarity to past like offenders.  Deduction, on the other hand, involves in depth analysis of the current case and involves reasoning where if the evidence collected is accurate, then the conclusions which flow from that evidence must also be accurate.  This paper provides an overview of the theoretical and practical issues involved in the reasoning employed by the profiler in their ruminations and should clarify a number of issues of confusion for students and practitioners alike.


Petherick, W. A.  (2006)  Geographic Profiling: The Devil is in the Distance,  Journal of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May.

Abstract
Geographic profiling is somewhat impressive on its face, with complex mathematical algorithms, 21st century computer technology, specialized training courses, and massive media exposure.  How though does the reality of geoprofiling match its public and scientific face, and how effective are computer models at predicting an offender’s home base in relation to their crime scenes?  This article will explore the theoretical backdrop to geographic profiling and look at some specific applications of use.  Further, it will show how the application of rudimentary principles of geographic profiling to a specific case did not help to isolate a home base despite success in other trials, from which some fundamental problems will be examined.


Turvey, B. E.  (2006)  Beneath the Numbers: Rape and Homicide Clearance Rates in the United States,  Journal of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May

Abstract
Rape and homicide investigations occur within complex environments where difficult decisions must be made based on changing and often uncertain evidence. This begs an obvious question to which there has been little or no actual answer: how is law enforcement handling the task? To answer this question, we must identify those elements of a criminal investigation that are necessary for a successful resolution, those elements that lead to investigative breakdown, and cast them in the light of the law enforcement report card – namely, clearance rates.
This preliminary review of rape and murder clearance rates, in combination with investigative realities and solvability factors, strongly suggests that investigative and forensic skill, ability and attentiveness are not being brought to bear in the majority of these cases. As a result, the vast majority of cases are being cleared because the victim-offender relationship is already known, and the investigation may focus on developing that presumed connection.


Journal of Behavioral Profiling: Volume 6, Number 1, May 2006
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