Papers
Petherick,
W. A.
(2006)
Developing
the Criminal Profile: On the Nature of Induction and Deduction,
Journal
of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May.
Abstract
Induction and deduction are among the most pivotal theoretical
and practical issues in criminal profiling, yet they are the
most poorly understood. Induction
involves statistical or correlational reasoning whereby the
current offender is assessed by virtue of their difference or
similarity to past like offenders.
Deduction, on the other hand, involves in depth
analysis of the current case and involves reasoning where if
the evidence collected is accurate, then the conclusions which
flow from that evidence must also be accurate.
This paper provides an overview of the theoretical and
practical issues involved in the reasoning employed by the
profiler in their ruminations and should clarify a number of
issues of confusion for students and practitioners alike.
Petherick,
W. A.
(2006)
Geographic
Profiling: The Devil is in the Distance,
Journal
of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May.
Abstract
Geographic profiling is somewhat impressive on its face, with
complex mathematical algorithms, 21st
century computer technology, specialized training courses, and
massive media exposure. How
though does the reality of geoprofiling match its public and
scientific face, and how effective are computer models at
predicting an offender’s home base in relation to their
crime scenes? This
article will explore the theoretical backdrop to geographic
profiling and look at some specific applications of use.
Further, it will show how the application of
rudimentary principles of geographic profiling to a specific
case did not help to isolate a home base despite success in
other trials, from which some fundamental problems will be
examined.
Turvey,
B. E.
(2006)
Beneath
the Numbers: Rape and Homicide Clearance Rates in the United
States,
Journal
of Behavioral Profiling, 6 (1), May
Abstract
Rape and homicide investigations occur within
complex environments where difficult decisions must be made
based on changing and often uncertain evidence. This begs an
obvious question to which there has been little or no actual
answer: how is law enforcement handling the task? To answer
this question, we must identify those elements of a criminal
investigation that are necessary for a successful resolution,
those elements that lead to investigative breakdown, and cast
them in the light of the law enforcement report card –
namely, clearance rates. This preliminary
review of rape and murder clearance rates, in combination with
investigative realities and solvability factors, strongly
suggests that investigative and forensic skill, ability and
attentiveness are not being brought to bear in the majority of
these cases. As a result, the vast majority of cases are being
cleared because the victim-offender relationship is already
known, and the investigation may focus on developing that
presumed connection.
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